Ukrainian forces reportedly encircled and decimated a small unit from the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade along the northern edge of Ukraine’s 250-square-mile territory in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast on Friday. This marks yet another setback for one of Russia’s leading units in their newly launched counteroffensive, which has now been underway for eight days in the region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly directed his forces to reclaim Kursk from Ukrainian control before the expected inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Some speculate that Putin anticipates Trump will push Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, solidifying the current front lines. Despite this, the Russians have made only modest territorial gains while suffering severe casualties, including the loss of over 100 military vehicles and potentially thousands of troops wounded or killed.
The 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, consisting of about 2,000 soldiers and bolstered by thousands of reinforcements from North Korea, has suffered catastrophic losses. According to one Russian blogger, the brigade is “bleeding” from constant, ill-prepared assaults. The brigade has been forced into repeated engagements with the Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade, which has maintained a resolute defense.
The first major clashes on November 7 and 8 revealed significant weaknesses in the brigade’s command structure, contributing to its heavy losses. Russian blogger Romanov explained that the brigade’s officers misinformed the general staff, claiming that the roads near the village of Pogrebki, located at the front line north of the Kursk salient, were clear of Ukrainian mines. Acting on this faulty intel, the general staff ordered an assault on the area.
However, the roads were far from clear. The 810th’s newly-deployed BTR-82 wheeled vehicles were quickly destroyed by landmines, with the survivors facing relentless artillery, missile, drone, and tank fire from Ukrainian forces.
The Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade, in coordination with adjacent units, claimed responsibility for the destruction of 36 Russian vehicles and the deaths of 100 Russian marines within the first two days of the attack. Despite this heavy toll, the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade persisted with further assaults, seemingly learning nothing from the disastrous encounter. Romanov noted that misinformation from the brigade’s command to the general staff had become routine, compounding the brigade’s misfortunes.
Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, explained that while Russia is technically making advances, they are at a high cost in both manpower and resources. While the Russians have gained some ground, they don’t fully control Pogrebki, and Ukrainian forces continue to launch counterattacks. On Thursday, an M-2 Bradley fighting vehicle from the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade targeted Russian BTR-82s in Orlovka, just south of Pogrebki. The 95th Air Assault Brigade also launched a counteroffensive that day, capturing several Russian marines.
The political landscape in the United States adds an element of uncertainty. As President-elect Trump prepares to take office on January 20, speculation surrounds his approach to the conflict. With a mix of unconventional cabinet appointments, including a television host for defense secretary and a known conspiracy theorist for intelligence, there are concerns about how the Trump administration will handle the war in Ukraine. However, according to Tatarigami, founder of the Ukrainian Frontelligence Insight group, one thing is certain: “Anyone who thinks Ukrainians will simply give up hasn’t been paying attention.”
Ukraine’s ability to continue resisting Russia’s advances is strengthened by the disarray and flawed intelligence affecting key Russian forces. The ongoing conflict in Kursk Oblast shows that despite Russia's efforts, Ukrainian forces are far from surrendering.